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NRIOL.COM - Forex News and Analysis |
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December 30, 2002
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Local News and Views:
Rupee woke up sniffing the big figure last week – having already walked the 47.00 terrain the previous week. Overall, market remained bit cautious in view of expected month end dollar demand and was conservative in pushing the dollar-rupee much below the 48.00 level. Ample supplies and hearty dollar dumping helped INR test 47.96 on the first day of the week but thereafter, dollar-rupee remained north of 48 levels owing to slackness carved by festivities and year end holidays. The overseas dollar bashing, however, restricted the Rupee’s slip. Premia remained mostly steady but are likely to ease in the next few days on receiving pressure.
Where do we go from here? We would say – nowhere – for a while. Market would judge and weigh the contradictory forces on INR – crude and gold prices on one hand and NRI and export inflows on the other. In the short term, three factors will go a long way in deciding INR’s future course: -
1) Greenback’s fate
2) RBI’s moods
3) Crude oil prices
The first and the third factor – directly or indirectly – is in US’s hand. If George Bush decides to stomp Saddam factor forever, crude oil prices may rush northwards and USD will get bulldozed further. Thus, these two factors will tend to partially set off each other as far as INR’s movement is concerned. However, higher oil prices and a higher oil import bill shouldn’t cause so much concern now as in the yesteryears especially with the country’s forex reserves close to $70 bn. Therefore, we see RBI’s mood as the main factor that is going to decide, which way the Rupee will move and how far.
So tune into Mr. Bimal Jalan please. He is the guy in the hot seat.
International News:
US Dollar (USD):
It was Merry Christmas week for everyone but not for the dollar. With its turmoil still continuing, it touched a 3-year low against the euro and 4-year low against the CHF. The dollar wobbled against the majors after thundering statements from the US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that the US is perfectly capable of fighting two major regional conflicts, winning decisively in one and swiftly defeating in the case of the other.
Anxieties over a possible war with Iraq remained at the forefront, which helped push oil to a new 2-year high above $32 per barrel. The protracted strike in Venezuela is also inducing the jump in oil price. The greenback was buoyed by upbeat economic data. US economic reports last week included personal consumption, which posted its largest increase since July at 0.5% for November compared with 0.4% gain in October. Personal income, edged higher too by 0.3% and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December rose to 86.7 vs. November reading of 84.2, posting the second monthly rise. This marked the largest increase in four months and indicates consumers continue to open their wallets even amid mounting geopolitical fears and economic uncertainties. The price index of personal consumption, regarded by the Fed as a more accurate measure of inflation than the consumer price index, advanced 1.8% on a y-to-y basis. Excluding food and energy, the PCE edged up 1.5%, pointing to a benign inflationary environment. US durable goods orders fell unexpectedly by 1.4% in November following a revised 1.7% rise in October, adding to evidence that the recovery is seeing a deceleration in the fourth quarter. Durable goods orders were weaker across categories with the exception of the defense sector. Excluding the strength in the defense component, the overall figure declined 2.3%. US jobless claims fell by 60,000 to 378,000, beating expectations of a more modest drop to 405,000. US new home sales jumped to 1.063 million units in November versus 1.007 million units the previous month.
Dow had a bad Christmas week shedding 208 points to close at 8303. Nasdaq shed 16 points to close at 1348.
Euro (EUR) – (O-1.0256, H-1.0444, L-1.0216, C-1.0438):
Euro remained the currency of the week as it kept its gaining momentum against the dollar. As reported by unidentified labor market experts, the number of unemployed in Germany jumped to 4.22 million in December from 4.03 million in November, registering the worst level in over five years. The deteriorating employment situation is further undermining confidence in the Schroeder government. French data showed a mixed picture with the December general business outlook indicator improving to -24 from –34. The composite business outlook climbed to 99.0 from 96.0. However, French unemployment rose by 17k, keeping the headline rate steady at 9%.
UK Pound (GBP) – (O-1.6026, H-1.6064, L-1.5868, C-1.6039):
Cable inched to a new 2-1/2 year peak at 1.6064 during London trade after the revised third quarter GDP report. UK Q3 GDP was revised up to 0.9% q/q from 0.8% but the GfK consumer confidence index showed a surprising fall to –4 compared to +2 in November. The rise in oil prices is benefiting the currency since Britain is a net exporter of oil. Although the market remained dull with holidays, cable followed in the footsteps of the euro after the setback early last week.
Japan Yen (JPY) – (O-120.35, H-120.80, L-119.78, C-119.83) :
Yen remained ranged throughout the week with persistent fears of BOJ intervention.
Economic data showed that prices in Japan fell for a 38th consecutive month. Nationwide core CPI came in at - 0.8% for November annually, slightly better than the forecast of -0.9%. Industrial output in November fell more than expected, down 2.2% from a month earlier, while inventories were down 2.5%. Unemployment edged down to 5.3%, from October's record level of 5.5%. Meanwhile, consumption shows no signs of picking up as household spending in November was down 3.4% annually, and the propensity-to-consume index fell to 71.9% from 72.7% a month earlier.
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Source: Mecklai Financial Services
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